Summer basketball preview: Derek Willis must play a key role
Cats Illustrated is taking a look at each player on Kentucky's 2016-17 basketball team with the summer before the season upon us.
First up, senior Derek Willis.
Eventful offseason already
Willis hasn't had an ideal offseason.
Earlier in June he was arrested for public intoxication, and later video surfaced showing the Cats' senior forward passed out in the road next to the driver's side door of his car.
John Calipari hasn't addressed the matter publicly and on the SEC's Men's Basketball Summer Teleconference this week assistant coach John Robic said he couldn't speak on the matter.
Whatever one believes of the gravity of the offense, Willis will need to prove to John Calipari that he's ready to assume the role of senior leader and that wasn't a good start.
The arrest doesn't mean that Willis is ill-suited for the job. It could have just been an error in judgment, and it might be something that's best dealt with behind the scenes and out of the public eye.
There's no word yet on whether any punishment might be coming down for Willis.
It's worth noting that Robic, on that summer teleconference, did single out Willis as a player who has done a good job of showing younger players the ropes. So given that context there could be reason to believe the staff sees the Boone County arrest as an isolated incident that won't have a lasting effect on Willis' ability to help lead the team.
Looking back on Willis' 2015-16 season
The 2015-16 season was a bit of a breakthrough for Willis, a player who has received plenty of attention as a former local recruit, but one who had struggled to find minutes because of the Cats' embarrassment of riches in the Calipari era.
Last year Willis played nearly half the game, on average, scoring 7.7 points and grabbing four boards per game.
Calipari has never taken it easy on Willis. He's often been quick to pull Willis from games when he's felt that he isn't up to the task defensively, but last year the then-junior Willis improved on that end of the court. He got more minutes as a result, but that was also due to the team's need as the front court took a huge step back from the 2014-15 season.
Willis has long been viewed as a player who can stretch the floor, but the numbers - in very limited minutes - didn't back that up when he was a freshman or a sophomore.
Last year Willis shot .442 from three-point range with a season-best seven threes (7/11) against Tennessee in a 25-point outburst.
In a seven-game stretch from January 27 through February 18, a span of just three weeks, Willis connected on 22 three-pointers. Although Kentucky shot better from the perimeter as a team later in the season than it did early, that was a timely bit of range for a stretch forward who gave defenses something else to worry about.
In Willis' last 21 games last season he knocked down at least two three-pointers in 15 contests.
Just before Willis' best barrage of threes in 2015-16 he also started to prove that he can be a very capable rebounder. He grabbed a dozen rebounds in two games last year, against Auburn and then against versus Missouri, and over a span of eight games in the middle of the season he averaged 8.1 boards per game.
As a mostly catch-and-shoot player Willis only turned the ball over more than twice in a single game last year, and that was in the season-opener against Albany. But that game was also his season-high in assists (also three).
Whatever promise Willis showed last year, there were also games when his production was almost non-existent. Most of those games were early in the season before Willis hit his stride, but some of them were later in the year.
In the NCAA Tournament against Indiana, Willis played 15 scoreless minutes. He did grab four rebounds, but however much Willis has improved defensively and on the glass, he's still not a major asset unless his shot is falling from outside and he's at least making opponents respect his ability to stretch the floor.
What to expect in 2016-17
The first order of business for John Calipari and his staff will be to make sure they take care of the off-court incident in Boone County. They've likely already begun that process and there's no telling where things stand on that point.
On the court, Willis will have to be a major contributor even with the arrival of another No. 1 recruiting class, according to Rivals.com.
Kentucky's front court should improve and perhaps markedly. Bam Adebayo is an athletic, explosive, high-motor forward who John Calipari will challenge to become the best rebounder in college basketball, and he should be a better finisher and glass-cleaner than anyone the Cats' had last year.
Throw fellow five-star forwards Sacha Killeya-Jones and Wenyen Gabriel into the mix and the Cats' will, at the very least, be very long, athletic and able shot-challengers at the rim.
Still, minutes will be there for Willis, and not only because he's a senior.
As heralded as De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are as recruits, they haven't yet proven in actual games how good they'll be, or won't be, as perimeter shooters. If they struggle to find their footing early -- and considering both Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray struggled from three early in the season, that's certainly possible -- then Willis' three-point range could be a critical asset for the team. No matter how much length, athleticism and speed the Cats throw at opponents, they'll still need players who can fill it up from deep. Given Willis' gaudy .442 clip last season, he's the obvious candidate to make opponents pay for going zone or packing it in.
Willis' shooting may be just as essential because of the perceived lack of a back to the basket scorer. Calipari doesn't seem to believe that's a debilitating weakness with this bunch, and the Cats' length and Adebayo's tenacity inside should be reason enough to believe that Kentucky will score more easily inside this year than they did last season.
But, again, there could be times when the Cats' find it difficult to score on the low block. In those moments Willis' range will be key, both in terms of point production and in helping to keep the defense extended so things free up down low.
Only Calipari knows the lineups he'll put on the floor this season, and perhaps he doesn't have much of an idea yet. But there's been plenty of media speculation that Fox, Monk, Isaiah Briscoe, Willis and Adebayo is a five that makes a lot of sense.
In that scenario, which does make some sense, the Cats would be going small with a three-guard lineup and a stretch four in Willis. That lineup would be very fast and skilled with the ball, but it would also press some demands on Willis. He would likely be asked to guard some bigger, stronger players, and against the better front lines the Cats see Willis will need to be up to the task.
If the Cats go small -- and even if they play their younger players Killeya-Jones and Gabriel a lot, then Willis will frequently need to be that tenacious rebounder that he was in the middle of last season. He probably won't need to average eight boards a game, but he needs to hit the glass with that kind of energy and emphasis.
Kentucky will have the opportunity to go bigger in 2016-17, especially if any of the five-star freshmen forwards are paired with Isaac Humphries of Tai Wynyard. In that scenario one might imagine that Willis would find minutes tougher to come by. However, given the fact that Briscoe hasn't proven himself to be a deep-threat defenses have to respect, Fox and Monk would probably have to prove their own range before Calipari would be too comfortable with Willis off the court, even in a big lineup situation.
It would be foolish to speculate on Willis' numbers with so many newcomers and the unpredictability that comes with that. But it's clear that Kentucky needs Willis' outstanding shooting. It's also very likely they will need him to be prepared to guard some bigger players, and to help give the Cats' more consistent front line play than they had last season.
Avoiding those occasional eggs -- as we saw against Indiana, Texas A&M (20 minutes, three points) and Alabama in Tuscaloosa (17 minutes, 0 points) -- will also be crucial as a senior who freshmen will look to for consistency and leadership.